As the U.S. and China respectively prioritize advances in the same strategic technologies, innovations may take place simultaneously, and diffusion may occur almost instantaneously. As China has become a global leader in multiple critical technological domains—including unmanned systems, hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, and quantum information science—indigenous Chinese innovation, rather than simply its rapid expropriation and effective emulation of foreign advances, also has the potential to prove highly disruptive. Under these conditions, neither the U.S. nor China is likely to achieve or maintain an enduring technological advantage.
How to Build a Virtual Clausewitz
In many ways, military forces using AI on the battlefield is not new at all. At a simplistic level, the landmine is perhaps a good starting example. The first known record of landmines was in the 13th Century in China and they emerged in Europe somewhere between 1500 and 1600. Most landmines are not intelligent and all and apply a binary logic of “kill” or “don’t kill.” What landmines lack, and one of the primary reasons they are banned by most countries, is the ability to use just and discriminate force. As far as computers have come since the British used “The Bombe” to break the Enigma code, the human mind still has an advantage in determining the just and discriminate use of force and thinking divergently about the second and third order effects resulting from the use of force. But, according to some, that advantage may not last for long.