A doctrine of preparedness and sound risk management practice mean that our foreign policy institutions must prepare for a wide spectrum of conflict-related risks arising from climate change. Some of these risks are present now; others will appear in the future, much more frequently and severely.
President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
