The United States’ involvement in Syria forms the crux of a global strategic crossroads. Will the U.S. continue to involve itself in the Middle East, or finally complete its “pivot” to the Pacific? A no-fly zone in Syria would settle that strategic question, but unleash a host of others. A no fly-zone has never been implemented under the conditions faced in Syria, against a well equipped and prepared counterpart eager to embarrass the Western nations aligned against it. Global escalation between the United States and Russia under these circumstances is not guaranteed, but the United States must decide as a nation whether it is willing to accept such a risk. The consequences for the wrong choice range from the tragic to the unthinkable.
President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
