Predictions about what countries will or won’t do in a crisis are less convincing than recognizing the sea change taking place from the intersection of cyber and nuclear war systems. Entirely new dynamics are coming into play, and must be given the attention they deserve.
President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
