Historical analogies are vital tools to navigate the present and shape the future, particularly given humanity's general lack of clairvoyance. However, such analogies must be carefully chosen; overreliance on a particular historical episode can instill assumptions in the minds of strategists or students of strategy that too often go unexamined. Currently, the Cold War reigns as the dominant analogy in framing U.S.-China relations in the 21st century.
President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
