Writing counterfactual history is always of tremendous difficulty, reminding me of astronomer Carl Sagan’s quip that history could only be a science if one possessed a time machine with which to run hypothesis-testing experiments. One can neither prove nor falsify the claims on offer here, but only guess at their plausibility. Such analytical exercises are welcome, and occasionally fruitful. The Folly of Generals will and should be welcomed by military enthusiasts, and is worthy of debate in staff colleges and other institutions of military education.
President Putin made three foundational assumptions in launching his war against Ukraine that should have been correct but were not. First, Putin assumed the invasion of Ukraine would be a quick and easy fight. Second, he assumed the world would denounce the invasion but tacitly allow it. Third, Putin assumed the war would deter NATO expansion.
